Various research shows that people polled who only use a cell phone tend to vote democratic by at least 4 points over Republicans. Do recent polls touted in the media properly include and weight cell phone users? Are cell phone users the October-November surprise that will keep Democrats in power in Congress and also win more gubernatorial seats?
What will be important in this election are exit polls. Exit polls are also important because if any county official decides to mess with the electronic vote, exit polls would be an extra check to see if something is not right with the tabulation of the vote.
The Pew Research Center’s article, “Cell Phones and Election Polls: An Update” on October 13, 2010 stated:
In the Pew Research Center’s latest poll, conducted Aug. 25 to Sept. 6 among 2,816 registered voters, including 786 reached by cell phone, 44% said that if the election were held today that they would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their district or leaned Republican, while 47% would vote for the Democratic candidate or leaned Democratic. Among the landline respondents, 46% preferred the GOP candidate and 45% the Democratic candidate, a four-point shift in the margin. In this survey, both estimates would have shown a close race between Republicans and Democrats.